Your 2013 Chicago Blackhawks Season Preview/Post-Lockout/Game of Thrones Extravaganza!

Annnnnnd, I'm back.  Only been five months.  Miss me?  Didn't think so.

Last year I used Harry Potter for the season preview. This year I am going with Game of Thrones, AKA A Song of Ice and Fire. (GOT is actually the name of the first book in the series so ASOIAF is a bit more appropriate when referring to the whole series...but...whatever.)

I have read all the books (five of a planned seven) and watched the first two seasons of the HBO series.  Obviously by reading the books I know things that are going to happen to a lot of the characters that you wouldn't know if you only watched the HBO series.  With that in mind I did my best to keep my descriptions vague so as not to spoil anything for you TV-only people, which I assume is the vast majority.  Also,  I used illustrations for the characters that I found online rather than the actors from the TV show.  I don't like being forced to imagine a character based on an actor's physical appearance.  I like to use my imagination so that's why I decided to do it that way.

If you haven't read the books, I highly recommend them.  They provide so much more depth and context than they are able to fit into the TV show.  I still like what HBO has done with it but the universe George R.R. Martin has created is so huge and has so many characters that it is really hard to work all the subtleties and nuances into a TV show.  Stuff gets lost.

I was planning on posting this on Friday 1/18, the day before the first game of the season. Unfortunately I came down with pneumonia last week and that just knocked me on my ass.  I highly recommend never catching pneumonia if you can arrange it.

I'm not sure what my plan for this blog is going forward.  I would like to think that I will be posting somewhat regularly during the hockey season.  At least I will if I think I have anything interesting to say. Follow me on Twitter if you care and I will link to whatever new stuff I post there.

I broke this down into two parts. The first part is all Blackhawks players and personnel.  The second part is all non-Hawks players and NHL/league people.  Enjoy!

PART 1 - BLACKHAWKS PLAYERS AND PERSONNEL

Jonathan Toews is...

Danerys Targaryen

Each is the most important character in their respective story and the plots cannot move forward unless they advance them.  Danerys is the mother of dragons and slaves.  Tazer is the metaphorical father of the team.  He's the daddy-captain. Did you see the pictures of him running practices during the lockout? It's just what he does, it's etched into his DNA.  I like to imagine someone else trying to run a practice and Tazer proceeding to stare them to death.

It's easy to forget how young Danerys and Tazer are.  Danerys is only fourteen in the books (guess HBO isn't cool with depicting a 14 year-old getting mounted by a much older Khal Drogo...) and Tazer is only twenty-four.  In hockey terms, he's still three to five years away from his prime. 

The main difference between these two is that Tazer has already been to the top of the mountain. The question is: was that a one time thing or can he put a team on his back and take them to the promised land one or two more times before he's done?  Danerys is still earning how to weild her power and is yet to achieve her dream of sitting upon the Iron Throne.

The Money Quote: "When my dragons are grown, we will take back what was stolen from me and destroy those who have wronged me.  We will lay waste to armies and burn cities to the ground.  Turn us away and we will burn you first."

Patrick Sharp is...

Ser Loras Tyrell 

Because they're the finest physical example of the male form in both fiction and real life. Or so I understand. That's where any comparison of these two must begin anyway. Sharp is one of Chicago's Most Beautiful People.  Ser Loras is known as the Knight of Flowers.  Women swoon after him wherever he goes.  They dampen the ladies' smallclothes is what I'm trying to say. (Disclaimer: In the books there are oblique references to Loras' sexual orientation and a possible clandestine relationship with Renly Baratheon; In the television show there is no ambiguity, Loras and Renly are shown to be lovers....but I digress.)

On a less superficial level, we must acknowledge that both of these guys are the balls in combat.  Sharp was the Hawks best and most dependable forward last year and is vastly underrated in the discussion of best offensive players in the league.  There is nothing really underrated about Loras. He is a member of the Kingsguard. He wins tourneys left and right and is considered one of, if not the best all-around knights in Westeros.

The Money Quote: [Jaime Lannister about Loras] "He is me, Jaime realized suddenly.  I was speaking to myself as I was, all cocksure, arrogant, and empty chivalry.  This is what it does to you to be too good, too young."

Marian Hossa is...

Khal Drogo

Khal Dogo is the baddest motherfucker to have sprung forth from the mind of George R.R. Martin thus far in a Song of Ice and Fire.  Nothing stands before him and the only player on the Hawks worthy of the comparison is my main man, my favorite Hawk, Boss Hoss, Marian Hossa.

Snappin' necks and cashin' checks is what they do.  When you are reading about or watching Drogo you can feel the power glowing off the page and screen.  He is pure animal-warrior.  No thought, just movement and action.  Instinct.  And that's what it feels like when I'm watching Hossa when he's on his game, just toying with the opposition because he's just so much better than everyone else on the ice. Whatever.  I'll admit it.  My Hossa man-crush is one degree shy of becoming Loras/Renly-esque.

If I'm comparing these two though, I can't get out of here without mentioning something rather unfortunate.  Both Hoss and Drogo were brought low by treachery.  Hossa by the mindless cruelty of Raffi Torres and Drogo by the blood magic of Mirri Maz Durr.

Hossa, like Tazer needs to avoid being concussed again this season if the Hawks are going to have any success.

PS: If anyone in the Hawks front office is even thinking about buying out Hoss next summer, I'm gonna find them and do THIS.  Beware.

UPDATE: Hoss checks in with a goal and two assists in the first game of the season. Boom!

The Money Quote: "I will rape their women, take their children as slaves, and bring their golden gods back to Vaes Dothrak."

Patrick Kane is...

Syrio Forel

Kaner is a more important character to the Blackhawks than Syrio Forel is to A Song of Ice and Fire but I couldn't figure out anyone else who matched up with Kaner so well.  Forel is a water dancer, a philosopher, and as the former First Sword of Braavos, he is the ultimate swordsman.

I love how Martin writes Forel.  His constant use of the third person to refer to both himself and the person he is speaking to is very entertaining.  

The comparison with Kaner is based solely on their pure skill levels.  I've seen it written before that Kaner is the Hawks most skilled player since Denis Savard.  For all of his off-ice exploits and being pushed into roles that don't suit him *cough*center*cough* it can be easy to forget how supremely talented the kid actually is when he is allowed to do what he does: make plays.  He is the Blackhawks water dancer and their first sword. 

The Money Quote: "Just so.  Opening your eyes is all that is needing.  The heart lies and the head plays tricks with us, but the eyes are true.  Look with your eyes.  Hear with your ears.  Taste with your mouth. Smell with your nose.  Feel with your skin.  Then comes the thinking, afterward, and in that way knowing the truth."

The Money Quote No. 2: "There is only one god, and His name is Death.  And there is only one thing we say to Death: 'Not today.'"

The Money Quote No. 3: "The Frist Sword of Braavos does not run."

Dave Bolland is...

Petyr Baelish AKA Littlefinger

There is the Game of Thrones and then there are the games within the Game of Thrones. These two are the masters of the games within the game.  Manipulation and psychology are where they make their bones. 

It's the work that Bolland does between the whistles that makes him special.  Like Baelish, he is slight of build and tends to rely more on his cunning than whatever his physical gifts may be.  He'll fuck with the other teams' mind then annoyingly back it up with a great skill play.  Even in moments of success however, he betrays nothing.  Are you familiar with his post-goal serial killer stare?

He is The Rat.

If Petyr Baelish's nickname was not Littlefinger, it could easily be The Rat.  Just look at him.  He is so god damned sneaky and slimy...and ratty.  He makes me squirm whenever he shows up in the series.  So creepy.  Always plotting and scheming to assume as much power as he possibly can you never feel like you really know what is going on with Littlefinger. You know he's playing the game two or three moves ahead of you but you can't catch up with him.  If every player in the game is dancing, don't you get the uncomfortable feeling that Littlefinger is the one holding all the strings?  Gross.

The Money Quote: "Distrusting me was the wisest thing you've done since you stepped off your horse."

Duncan Keith is...

Eddard Stark

Great, yet flawed men.  Eddard tried to play the game of thrones with honor and that cost him his head. If only Eddard would have remembered what Leo, the evil leader of The Scorpions gang in the musical Grease said: "The rules are, there ain't no rules."

No rules in drag racing and no rules in the game of thrones, alas.  That is not to say that Eddard was stupid, just that he could not deviate from his rigid moral code for any reason, even if it meant saving his own life.

Which brings us to the curious case of Duncan Keith.  Only a couple of years ago he was deemed the best defenseman in all the realm.  Today, he's slipped into a secondary tier and the fans and media have just about run out of explanations as to what exactly his malfunction is.

At first we thought it was just part of the general hangover the whole team went through after the Cup run.  He admitted as much himself.  Then last year there was a lot of talk about motivation and visits to the team psychiatrist.  Haven't heard a peep out of him this off-season/lockout.  He wasn't in Chicago working out with the guys there so I'm left to assume he was training in solitude in rural British Columbia like some kind of Canadian monk.

It's my hope that during all these off months that he was able to sort out whatever it was that bringing him down and get back to his old ways.

Quiet, solid, rigid.  Honorable.  There are a lot of similarities between Duncs and Eddard, I just hope that Keith figures out how to change himself in time.  Eddard didn't.

The Money Quote: "Winter is coming."

Brent Seabrook is...

Jaquen H'ghar

Power play? Check.  Penalty kill? Check.  Shut down the other team's top line?  Check.  Eats monster minutes?  Check.  Can be relied upon to complete any task put to him in any given situation?  Check. He is simply the Hawks best defenseman and he does it all in relative silence and anonymity.

Jaqen H'ghar is the best at what he does (killing people).  If you give a man a name, a man will kill him for you.  Period.  End of story.  As a Faceless Man of Braavos we don't really know who or what Jaqen H'ghar is other than the most efficient killer this side of Dexter.  And he does it all in relative silence and anonymity.

The Money Quote: "Help was not promised, lovely girl. Only death."

Corey Crawford is...

Brandon Stark

Sometimes it's easy to forget that the goaltender is the most important position on a hockey team.  It's even easier to forget that on a team like the Hawks who have so many interesting players and personalities outside the crease that by the time you get to thinking about Corey Crawford, you're like, "Oh yeah, him."

His first season was good, his second season was bad and now what are we to expect in his third?  It was too many softies last year, especially in the playoffs that sunk the Hawks.  Did he spend his lockout time wisely?  I don't know.  I never heard anything about him at all during the lockout.  He is so boring that he makes Tazer look like a coked up go-go dancer in a cage at Studio 54, circa 1978.  I bet you Crawford is like one of those weirdos who are on that show My Strange Addiction. He probably eats toasters or something.

It can be easy to forget about Bran as well since Martin tends to abandon his story from hundreds of pages at a time.  But that's not because he's not important, in fact he may end up as the most important character in the series when it's all said and done (with the caveat that he doesn't die first, of course - Martin loves to kill his characters).

As an aside, I predict the climax of the entire saga will come down to some kind of epic showdown between Bran and Danerys, Ice versus fire. Just a guess.

Anyway, there's a lot going on with Bran.  He obviously has enormous potential but can he learn to harness his power, and channel it properly?  Same for Crawford.  Enormous potential.  The talent is there, but can he put it all together in a scant 48 games?

The Money Quote: "Can a man still be brave when he's afraid?"

Daniel Carcillo is...

Melisandre

We don't have proof that Carcillo is not actually a red priest of R'hllor so until proven otherwise, I'm just going to go with that.

Lots of connections between these two.  Melisandre seems to be playing a game that we, the readers, are not privy to and sometimes it feels like Carcillo decides to play his own games with out considering what is best for the team.  I can't take any more mindless majors that require season-ending surgery and months of rehab from him.

Melisandre undoubtedly has power.  We just don't understand where it comes from or what the extent of it is.  I don't think she does either.  Her visions show both truths and half-truths and she doesn't have the skill to separate the two which is frustrating and makes her look like some kind of carnival sideshow... Just like Carcillo.

Carcillo actually has some skill but when he forgets that and lets his reptilian brain take over (or maybe it's the other way around; maybe his brain is primarily reptilian and the human side emerges only occassionally...) things go to shit and he becomes the sideshow.

Both Carcillo and Melisandre have attached themselves to powerful people in order to further their ambitions: Melisandre to Stannis Baratheon and Carcillo to Toews and Hossa (on whose line he will be skating).  Only Q would be able to explain why Carcillo is on a line with two of the best forwards in hockey when he should be in the bottom six somewhere.  Melisandre is merely an up-jumped priestess who thinks that Stannis is the answer to her prophecies.  Stannis is running with her because he doesn't have any other options.  The Hawks have other options on what they can do with Carcillo although it is up to Q's whims to make it happen.  Color me doubtful.

UPDATE: Carcillo injured himself in the first game of the season and will be out for a month. 

The Money Quote: "We all must choose.  Man or woman, young or old, lord or peasant, our choices are the same.  We choose light or we choose darkness."

Brandon Saad is...

Arya Stark

Brandon Saad and Arya Stark are the vessels of all our hopes and dreams.  Merely children, we have seen their potential and ache to see both of them mature into their powers with which they will beat fools down.

Arya is my favorite character in both the books and television series, although in the books Martin spends a hell of a lot more time on characters a hell of a lot less interesting (Catelyn Stark, come on down!  Brienne of Tarth, come on down!) than Arya.  In books with fifty or sixty chapters, he might give her three.  Come on, man.

We want both of them to do well so badly that it aches.  We want Arya to become a master assassin who takes vengeance on all the people who destroyed her and her family (Ser Gregor, Dunsen, Polliver, Raff the Sweetling, The Tickler, The Hound, Ser Ilyn, Ser Meryn, King Joffrey, Queen Cersei) and we want Saad to become the next Hossa.  We want it.  Can they live up to our expectations?  I don't know. That's why we read the books and watch the games... 

The Money Quote: "Swift as a deer.  Quiet as a shadow.  Fear cuts deeper than swords.  Quick as a snake. Calm as still water.  Fear cuts deeper than swords.  Strong as a bear.  Fierce as a wolverine. Fear cuts deeper than swords.  The man who fears losing has already lost.  Fear cuts deeper than swords.  Fear cuts deeper than swords."

Andrew Shaw is...

Sandor Clegane AKA The Hound

They're button-pushers.  They annoy you with their filthy chirping which is one way to get under your skin... but when some one tells them to, you know, push a button... they push it.

Excuse me for jumping off the GOT metaphor train here for a second but maybe this exchange from The Godfather, Part 2 can explain things a little better.

Chairman: You were a member of the Corleone crime organization.
Cicci: No. We called it the Corleone Family, Senator.  We called it the family.
Chairman: What was your position?
Cicci: At first, like everybody else, I was a soldier.
Chairman: What is that?
Cicci: A button, you know, Senator, come on.
Chairman: No, I don't know. Tell me.
Cicci: Well when the boss says push a button on a guy, I push a button. See, Senator? 

The Money Quote: "If any man dies with a clean sword, I'll rape his fucking corpse!"

The Money Quote (Bonus Quote!): "Fuck the Kingsguard, fuck the city, fuck the king."

Joel Quenneville is...

Lord Commander Jeor Mormont

Grizzled, veteran soldiers.  Leaders of men.  Questionable decision-makers.

The Money Quote: "They say the king loved to hunt. The things we love destroy us every time, lad. Remember that."

PART 2 - NON-HAWKS PLAYERS & LEAGUE PERSONALITIES

Dustin Byfuglien is...

Samwell Tarly

Because they're both fat, you see.

The Money Quote: 

Alexandre Burrows is...

Theon Greyjoy

A weak, insecure boy who betrays the family that raised him and kills many of those that he was closest to.  Sounds about right for Burrows.

The Money Quote: "It's better to be cruel than weak."

Sidney Crosby is...

Viserys Targaryen

They operate under the presumption that they are the best.  That they are the true heirs and direct descendents of the great players and kings that have come before them.

But they presume too much.  They over reach.  They whine and grovel and depend upon the welfare of the media strangers to survive.

No, in the end, they are not special at all. Crosby got his crown of concussions and Viserys received his crown of molten gold.

The Money Quote: "You dare?  You give commands to me?  To me?  You do not command the dragon. I'm the lord of the Seven Kingdoms.  I don't take orders from savages or their sluts.  Do you hear me?"

Don Cherry is...

Grand Maester Pycelle

Doddering old fools whose"wisdom" is sought out and listened to with great reverence.

The Money Quote:"Now I have his son, King Joffrey, may the Gods bless his reign.  He's a capable young man."

Elliote Friedman is...

Lord Varys

They are the Masters of Whispers. Too easy.

The Money Quote: "The storms come and go, the waves crash overhead, the big fish eat the little fish, and I keep on paddling."

Gary Bettman is...

Cersei Lannister

Lying, incompetent, scheming cunts.

The Money Quote: "When you play the game of thrones you win or die.  There is no middle ground."

Jeremy Jacobs is...

Tywin Lannister

These are the true faces of evil and power.  Other...lesser...beings, may scurry about, making irritating noises in dark corners of these stories but in the end they signify nothing.  Only these two stand unopposed, lords of all they survey.  They are heartless pricks who would sell their own mothers into prostitution if they thought there was a buck to be made.

The Money Quote: "A lion doesn't concern himself with the opinions of a sheep."

Donald Fehr is...

Tyrion Lannister

They are the perfect foils for Jeremy Jacobs and Tywin Lannister.  If only the whole world wasn't watching every move Jacobs and Tywin make, they would have disposed of these disgusting inconveniences long ago.  Alas, as it stands, their existences must be tolerated.

Unfortunately for Jacobs and Tywin, Tyrion and Donald are the cleverest characters in their respective universes.  They tend to be underestimated at every turn which they almost always use to their advantage.

The Money Quote: "I have a realistic grasp of my own strengths and weaknesses.  My mind is my weapon. My brother has his sword, King Robert has his war hammer, and I have my mind...and a mind needs books as a sword needs a whetstone, if it's to keep its edge.  That's why I read so much, Jon Snow."

That's it.  You can follow me on Twitter @nCornick more nonsense if you so desire.

Three-Eyed Raven Tease

Hawks Thoughts, Round 1, Game 4

/Turns on flashlight

/Tentatively steps inside

/Blows the digital cobwebs away

Umm... Is anyone home?

/A bat flies over head and out the door

Well, uh, I guess it's been a while since we've talked.

/Checks the date.

Two months? Yikes. Sorry about that. I don't have much to say about "why" other than...this happens to me.  I get depressed for a while and it takes some time to cycle out of it.  As the days grow longer, I seem to be emerging from this most recent down time and that's a good thing.

If you follow me on Twitter, you know that I'm still around. Still engaged with the Hawks and the season. Still ranting and dropping "motherfuckers" like I'm getting paid for it.

When I'm depressed, sometimes I feel like all I have are my teams. Each game is like a lantern in the darkness. If I can just make it to the next lantern, I'll be fine. So I shuffle along from game to game, downloading pleasure or pain from each result into a brain that is otherwise numb to external stimuli.

So that's where I've been.

How have the Hawks been? Well, like most things in life, I think this question can be answered by a quote from the big Lebowski. "Oh, you know, strikes and gutters. Ups and downs."

The Dude Abides from Ryan Hopman on Vimeo.

The last time I blogged (mid-February) The Hawks were in the middle of the Streak-That-Shall-Not-Be-Named.  Tazer got concussed and missed the last quarter of the season but the boys pulled their shit together and made it into the playoffs.

So here we sit a few hours before Game 4 against Phoenix, down 2-1 in the series and Marian Hossa is sitting at home nursing....something.

Unless you think the Hawks can win three in a row to close out the Yotes, tonight is a must-win game. No two ways about that. And I do not think the Hawks can beat Phoenix thrice in a row. So, yeah, must win.

Brandon Saad is back up with big boys tonight, filling in for Hoss in the top 6. I'd like to see lines like so:

Saad-Toews-Kane
Sharp-Kruger-Stalberg

The kid might as well be wearing a question mark on the back of his jersey instead of 43. (43, really? That's the best they can come up with for him? Such a putrid number. How about 23? That's a great Chicago number [Sandberg, Hester, Jordan]. At least give him something to work with. 43 looks awful. Like a donut laying on a staircase or something.)

But I digress.

I think we are all hoping he shows up tonight and goes sick with a hatty or something. But that shit never happens. Usually in these kinds of situations, you barely notice the rook. The moment is too big. I wouldn't be surprised if he pissed himself a little bit during the anthem.  I would.

Every game has been close. Every game has gone to overtime. I doubt tonight will be any different. It would be such a relief to drop six or seven on them but their goalie, Smith, is too good for any of the nonsense we've seen in the PIT-PHI series. Although I will say that Smith displays an astonishing amount of testicular fortitude playing the puck out of his net as much as he does.  I predict that this high wire act with the puck will come back to bite him in the ass before these playoffs are over.  Maybe not in this series but if they move on, something bad is going to happen with him jerking off in the trapezoid at some point.

(Good band name: Jerking Off in the Trapezoid. Probably some kind of futuristic drug-addled jam band. "Dude, did you go to the Trapezoid show last week? So sick, bro! I was so psyched when they opened with 'Carnival Barker's Daughter' I was rolling so hard.")

I digress again.

The Hawks top 6, even minus Hossa, is so much more talented than than Phoenix. That difference in class has to start asserting itself soon, as in, like, right motherfucking now, tonight. I don't feel like Q gave the 10-16-25 line enough time together at the beginning of the series. They were rocking something special together at the end of the season. But one game without a point was enough for the moustache and he pulled the slot machine handle.

Let's try putting the band back together for at least one night, eh? And if you're going to play Saad, then give him the best chance at succeeding by putting him with the two best play makers on the team in Tazer and Kaner. I read a couple tweets from the beat writers that they might put Saad with Kane and Brunette. Please, God, no. Brunette cannot move. He is useless in 5-on-5 situations. I only like him on the power play behind the goal line. Kane and Saad are dynamic play-making scorers. Putting them with Brunette would be like chaining an anchor to the rear axle of a Ferrari. JUST DON'T DO IT, Q. Resist the urge. Use the force.

That's all I've got right now.

I promise to try and blog more frequently.

You can follow me on Twitter @nCornick

Hockey in Seattle

Here's the number one story, top of the fold, from yesterday's (2/5/12) Sunday Seattle Times:

Seattle sports-arena talks well under way, documents show

w00t w00t!

The main point of the article is that there is a (really) rich guy in San Francisco, a Seattle native, who wants to build a state-of-the-art basketball arena and bring an NBA team back to Seattle. The most likely candidate being the Sacramento Kings.

A bit further down in the article however, we have this nugget:

In addition, National Hockey League Commissioner Gary Bettman has expressed a strong interest in placing a team in Seattle, leading to widespread speculation that the financially struggling Phoenix Coyotes could be moved here.

Bettman, speaking after a board of governors meeting in Ottawa last week, said the league hopes to find a buyer before the end of the season to keep the Coyotes in the Phoenix area, according to news reports. "I don't see any reason to discuss a Plan B at this point," he said.

But, according to ESPN.com, Bettman said, "There are a lot of people who think Seattle would be a great place to have a team. The Pacific Northwest, the natural rivalry with Vancouver, another team in the Pacific time zone ... but there's no building."

Seattle has been mentioned as an NHL destination along with Kansas City and Quebec City.

While many observers consider an NHL team, as well as concerts and entertainment events, to be a crucial component for the financial success of a new arena, the documents obtained by The Times focus on basketball.

Oh, shit.

My wife and I are desperately hoping that this comes true because if it does, we will be season ticket holders, no question. It would be awesome to have a team here and to be able to watch live hockey. So exciting. I hope that this thing actually comes together and that hockey is part of the final deal.

Did you know that the Seattle Metropolitans were the first American team to win the Stanley Cup? Happened in 1917. True story.

Follow me on Twitter @nCornick

The NHL's Big Chance (Re-Post)

I originally posted this on my old blog in October 2010.  Now that labor negotiations between NFL owners and players have broken down it sounds like there is a good chance that the NFL may miss games this upcoming fall. I thought now might be a good time to re-examine some thoughts I had about how the NHL could benefit not only from an NFL lockout but from an NBA work stoppage as well.

***

I would never accuse Gary Bettman of being good at his job but as every hockey fan knows, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Eleven months from now, in September 2011, Bettman and the NHL have a once-in-a-lifetime chance to become very lucky indeed. The ironic twist to this story is that theNHL's good fortune would come at the expense of the NFL and NBA's labor issues.

The Collective Bargaining Agreements for both the NFL and NBA expire after the end of their respective 2010-11 seasons (February 28, 2011 for the NFL, June 30, 2011 for the NBA). The owners and unions in both leagues have been preparing for the possibility of a lockout for the last couple years. If it should come to pass that either the NFL or NBA starts canceling regular season games it would create a huge void on the sporting landscape. If they are smart (huge "If" there) NHL executives should be burning the midnight oil right now preparing strategies on how best to exploit the NFL and NBA'sproblems come next autumn.

Before I get ahead of myself on how the NHL might craft its' strategy, I wanted to see what the odds looked like for the likelihood that either league would actually lock out. I conducted an informal poll of people smarter than me and reached out to some NFL, NBA and sports media writers via e-mail and Twitter to gauge their feelings on whether regular season games would be missed next year. Here is what I found out:

Sam Farmer, NFL columnist for the LA Times, pegged the chances of an NFL lockout at 75%.

Dan Pompei, NFL columnist for the Chicago Tribune and The National Football Post wouldn't put a percentage on it but said "I think there is a decent chance the NFL will miss a game or two, but I wouldn't envision a prolonged work stoppage."

Jason Cole, who writes the Shutdown Corner (NFL) blog for Yahoo! Sports put the chances of missing games at 10%.

John Ourand, a media reporter for Sports Business Journal, wanted to make it clear that he had no inside knowledge but put the likelihood of a work stoppage in the NFL at 75% and said "Everyone I talk to is pessimistic."

Richard Deitsch, a media reporter for Sports Illustrated set the chance of the NFL missing games at 20% and the NBA at 10%. Deitsch also mentioned "Note that I'd always take Ourand's predictions on labor disputes well before mine."

Kelly Dwyer writes the Ball Don't Lie (NBA) blog for Yahoo! Sports and said "I'd be surprised if any games were missed, but I'd bet on a lockout from July through September."

Phil Taylor, who covers the NBA for Sports Illustrated says "I'd say NBA stoppage is 75% likely. Owners really want to roll back salaries, and players won't allow that without a fight. Once a work stoppage begins, I don't see either side backing down until regular season games are missed. 60 game season maybe."

Regarding the NBA's situation, the following is from an October 3, 2010 article in the Detroit Free Press by Vince Ellis.

But the league's labor situation is serious business, and Stuckey and other Pistonsacknowledged that fact. It took a more serious tone last week when Wizards owner Ted Leonsis told D.C.-area business leaders he expects the NBA to adopt a hard salary cap similar to the NHL's model.

In what might be a record for pro   sports leagues, he was hit with a $100,000 fine before the day was over by league commissioner David Stern for "unauthorized public comments regarding the league's collective bargaining negotiations."

 "We're negotiating, and that was one of our negotiating points," Stern said, "but collective bargaining is a negotiating process, and that was not something that Ted was authorized to say, and he will be dealt with for that lapse in judgment." 

Despite Stern's assertion, the term "cost certainty" has been bandied about by front-office types for some time. Cost certainty is definitely code for a hard cap. The league already has a salary cap, but it has been reported that the NBA   seeks to get rid of the myriad of exceptions the team has to go over it. Stern said the league is losing money, and the league office says a new economic plan is needed for future viability.

 But some say the exorbitant contracts tossed around this summer during free agency is proof that the league is doing fine. NBA union chief Billy Hunter has said that if the league insists on a hard cap, there will be a protracted labor battle. So when the current collective bargaining agreement expires June 30, the possibility looms that the league will call for a lockout, threatening the start of the 2011-12 season.

Please note that Ted Leonsis owns both the Washington Capitals (NHL) and the Washington Wizards (NBA). When the NHL owners and the NHL Players Association battled over the institution of a hard salary cap it cost the league the entire 2004-05 season. Could the same kind of work stoppage be on tap for the NBA in 2011? It certainly sounds possible.

All of that sets the table for me to try and read the tea leaves. It feels inevitable that either the NFL or NBA is going to miss regular season games next year. My personal opinion is that the NFL owners would have to be overcome by a monumental case of hubris to be willing to strangle the golden goose that is their league. The NBA has a recent history of missing regular season games (in 1998-99 the NBA played a 50 game season due to a lock out) and I am more inclined to believe that the NBA's players and owners are more arrogant than the NFL's.

So let's look the scenarios.

Scenario #1: NBA Plays a Partial Schedule, NFL Continues as Normal.

This is the one I think is most likely to occur. In this case, the blitzkrieg that is the NFL will roll on, crushing television ratings and advertising rates like so many Polands and Czechoslovakias. I don't see a lot of potential for the NHL here. Let's say that Phil Taylor is correct and that the NBA plays a shortened 60 game season. That would not leave much opportunity for the NHL to exploit NBA fans other than to offer an indoor sporting event at the same venues where they would normally watch basketball. Is there a crossover appeal between basketball and hockey fans? My gut says no. All the hockey fans I know could care less about the NBA and I imagine the inverse is true. One possible opportunity for the NHL in this situation is if an NBA lockout lasted past Christmas (the 50 game schedule in 1998 did not start until February 5). That would open the door for the NHL to poach Christmas Day off the NBA's television schedule. The NBA uses Christmas Day to kick off its' network television schedule with a double-header, promoting the league's biggest stars and rivalries (LAL-BOS, MIA-LAL, MIA-BOS).Traditionally, the NHL goes dark on Christmas. That tradition would need to be shelved in the service of widening exposure for the league. How do you feel about something like all the Original Six teams playing each other on a Christmas Day triple header (CHI-DET, MTL-TOR, NYR-BOS)? I think that sounds beyond fantastic. Not only would you have three great, traditional games on a national network, you would be able to use those games to promote the Winter Classic the following week on New Year's Day.

Scenario #2: NBA Cancels Season, NFL Continues as Normal.

This could help the NHL in a couple ways. Faced with the prospect of no basketball at all, I could see NHL teams picking up a few new season ticket holders and maybe a small bump in television ratings, especially on weeknights in December, January and February when hoops fans would be used to watching the NBA. I think most NBA fans would probably look to spend their money and television time on college hoops as an alternative rather than the NHL though.

Scenario #3: The NFL Cancels Anything

This is where things start to get interesting. If we get to a point where it looks like the NFL is going to start missing games and/or cancel the season the NHL needs to be ready to seamlessly fill the void. I believe the appeal of the NHL is much more closely aligned with an NFL fan than the NBA fan although I have no evidence to back that up (I did google it though).

The most important factor in all of this speculation is the timing. Not only are the NFL and NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreements expiring next spring, so are the NHL's television broadcasting rights agreements. When the NHL starts meeting with prospective bidders, one of their bargaining chips with the television executives should be the possibility of missed games in the NBA and NFL, especially the NFL.

Just as professional athletes have performance-based incentives in their contracts, I would propose the NHL do the same thing in their next broadcasting deal. For example, say the NFL starts canceling games, then the NHL should have some contractual language worked into the next broadcast rights agreement that they would receive a cut of the ads sold on games aired during the NFL's traditional time slots on Sundays and Monday.

Oh, yeah. I went there. In my opinion, the cornerstone of this whole thought experiment is based on Sundays. The NHL should be thinking about some kind of triple-header for every Sunday with games at 1:00, 4:00 and 8:00 ET. These would ideally be inter-divisional games, rivalry games, Original Six vs. Original Six games and rarely seen match-ups between Eastern and Western Conference teams (CHI-WAS, LA-PIT, VAN-BOS, etc.). From what I understand, watching sports on a Sunday is an American thing so I don't know how this would apply to Canada but as Grand Funk Railroad sang, "We're an American blog!"

But I digress.

One problem here is that NFL season starts in early September and the NHL season starts in Early October. The NFL would have to miss at least five or six weeks of games for the NHL to be able to start exploiting that situation. Just to be clear though, if the NHL was able to start broadcasting day games on NFL Sundays then they would be looking at the possibility of capturing a bigger audience for their product than anything in the league's history. Say your average national 1:00 or 4:00 NFL game gets between 10-15 million viewers. If the NHL could capture thirty percent of that audience, it would be record-breaking for regular season hockey.

Even if the NFL missed no games or a few games, it still might be an interesting experiment for a network to try and counter-program the NFL for a season with an NHL triple-header on Sundays. The hockey games might make a decent rating just based on the sloppy seconds, thirds and fourths over-flowing from the tens of millions of people watching football on Sundays. Although I admit I would still watch the Bears if they were head to head against the Hawks.

I will give the NHL credit for something they have done well (maybe because Bettman isn't involved in it) and that is its' advertising and promotions. Whoever the NHL's next broadcasting partner is, they will need to be willing to team up with the league and go all-in on pumping up the league, the rivalries and personalities on Sundays as an alternative to the NFL. If the NFL missed five or six weeks that would provide the NHL with more national exposure than it has ever gotten. The NHL and their broadcasting partner would need to hit a home run with an advertising campaign, something viral over the course of the summer leading into the fall. One thing I think the NHL consistently does right are its' commercials and online presence.

That's all I've got. It would take a lot of stars to line up properly for the NHL to benefit from any of these scenarios but I think work stoppages will happen for either the NBA or NFL and it behooves the NHL to be prepared to step in and satisfy the appetite of those fans with a game that is both faster and higher scoring than it has ever been while still maintaining its' traditions and rivalries.

PS: If you aren't already doing so, please follow me on Twitter @nCornick . Give me a couple weeks and if you think the stupid shit I tweet about is, well, shitty, please feel free to unfollow.